Curiously, the Moon will be much closer to the 1499 trail than Earth will be. “If the Moon had an atmosphere to catch the comet dust, there would be about 1400 meteors per hour in lunar skies–a real storm,” notes Cooke. Instead, the Leonids will simply hit the ground.
Most Leonid meteoroids are microscopic, and when they hit the Moon they do little more than raise a puff of moon dust. But a few will be bigger: the size of golf balls or grapefruits. Travelling about 160,000 mph, these impactors can cause explosions visible from Earth.
“In 2003 we won't be able to see any lunar impacts because most of the Leonids will strike the far side of the Moon. Some will hit the Earth-facing side, but the ground where they hit will be sunlit. That makes it very hard to see the explosions.”
“About 0.1% of the kinetic energy in a lunar Leonid impact is converted to visible light,” says Melosh. That's a small fraction, but enough for a brilliant explosion.
So far we've seen lunar Leonids as flashes of visible light, but infrared wavelengths around 10 microns would be even better,” says Melosh. The visible flash of a lunar Leonid comes and goes in milliseconds, but bright infrared radiation would persist for minutes, a result of the slow-to-cool crater formed by the explosion.
According to computer simulations by Melosh and Nemtchinov, the explosion of a 10 kg Leonid meteoroid would leave behind a 4.5 meter-wide crater on the Moon. “A 10 kg-sized particle entering the Earth's atmosphere would cause a fireball event that would be hard to miss. However, it would disintegrate entirely high in the Earth's atmosphere without getting close to the Earth's surface. Leonids are traveling at 71 km/s (the fastest meteoroids) and would completely disintegrate even in the very unlikely case they were solid iron.”
“Go out in your backyard and look up,” says Cooke. “You can see about about 11,000 square kilometers [of Earth's atmosphere]. Now look at the Moon. Depending on its phase you could be looking at as much as 19 million square kilometers of dark terrain.” The Moon is a huge meteoroid detector! Cooke believes that systematic observations of lunar meteoroid impacts might reveal new information about the largest fragments in comet debris streams.
When meteoroids strike the Moon and explode, they vaporize a bit of the Moon itself. Studying those vapors might be one way of “lunar prospecting” from a distance. A team of scientists from the University of Texas and NASA tried something similar in 1999 when they crashed NASA's Lunar Prospector spacecraft into the Moon. They crashed the probe into a south polar crater, hoping that the impact would vaporize shadowed water-ice and eject a detectable cloud of water vapor over the lunar limb.